Only interacial dating
If you grow up in a town with only one non-White family, the intermarriage rate doesn’t really reflect your beliefs.
That’s partially why White people were three times less likely to intermarry in 1980 than in 2014: there were half as many opportunities.
Thus, White people were roughly six times more likely than random to marry another White person.
By 2014, however, Whites were only four times more likely than random to marry another White person.
Our “no-demographic change” estimate suggests that intermarriage would have only risen to 6.7% if demographics had not changed – a 1.9% increase, dramatically smaller than the 8.6% increase actually observed.
Once these demographic changes are accounted for, a large portion of the increase in intermarriage rates vanishes.
But demographic changes likely account for more than this 3.5% increase.
It’s not just that the United State’s increasing diversity means there are more Asians, Hispanics, and Other individuals who choose to intermarry.
In the chart below, the blue trend line is our estimate of the rate of intermarriage if the demographics of the young married population had not changed since 1980 – the orange line shows the actual increase.
While there is still an increase, it is not even close to what we saw in the first chart.Americans on whether they believed it was acceptable for Blacks and Whites to date each other.